The death toll from the coronavirus across many Russian regions could be many times higher than official statistics show, analysis of new data by The Moscow Times suggests.
Experts pointed to systemic underreporting of deaths, and highlighted a complex incentive structure and political relationship between the Kremlin and Russia’s governors in the regions.
They believe that by discouraging regions from reporting bad news, insisting they keep the virus under control and providing loose guidelines on how to count deaths, Russia has opened the door for regions to falsify, manipulate and delay accurate reporting of the spread of the virus.
Figures published by Russia’s statistics agency Rosstat last week show Russia recorded more than three times as many excess fatalities in May and June than the daily Covid-19 death counts published by Russia’s pandemic task force and used by politicians and media outlets to assess the spread of the virus.
Across many of Russia’s 85 regions, the discrepancy is even wider.
Dozens reported their most deadly May and June — the most recent months for which detailed fatality data is available — in a decade, registering hundreds of unexplained excess fatalities.
The new information raises fresh questions about how seriously swathes of the country have been affected by the pandemic, and the impact insufficient data could have had on Russia’s response.
Counting fatalities
Russia’s coronavirus statistics have come under scrutiny since the beginning of the outbreak, when officials heralded a robust testing regime as the reason for the country’s curiously low death rate.
Like other countries, Russia publishes a daily tally of new infections and deaths from the virus. The numbers are compiled by local authorities and both a national and regional count are published every morning.
“In many regions, the statistics have nothing to do with reality at all,” said Tatiana Mikhailova, a statistician who has been tracking the virus outbreak since the beginning and regularly raises concerns about data.
As the only official source of real-time information on the virus, the daily numbers are nevertheless widely reported on and carry serious weight in assessing the spread of the virus, managing the response and comparing Russia to other countries.